Illustrative self-check · private
This is a simplified version of the forecaster we build, and it runs entirely in your browser — nothing you type is sent anywhere. It is meant to show you the shape of the answer on your own numbers. It does not replace an audit calibrated on your history.
Tools · portfolio margin check
Which of your projects is heading below zero margin
Add your live fixed-price or capped projects. For each, the tool forecasts the cost-to-complete as a distribution and reports the probability it finishes below zero margin — then rolls the portfolio up into a single margin-at-risk number and a plain finding.
| Project | Contract value € | Cost so far € | Est. cost to finish € | Uncertainty % | P(loss) |
|---|
Portfolio margin at risk (p90)
€0
Expected margin exposed in the bad-but-plausible case, summed across projects that can finish underwater.
Projects at risk
0
Probability of finishing below zero margin ≥ 40%.
Expected portfolio margin
€0
Contract value minus expected cost at completion.
The plain finding
Method: each project's cost-to-complete is modelled as lognormal around your estimate with the uncertainty you set; P(loss) is the mass above the remaining contract value. The audit itself calibrates this on your delivery history and decomposes the cause. The method →
Start with the decision
If your own numbers just lit up red
This is four fields per project. The audit runs on your delivery data, calibrates against your history, and says why the number is what it is and what you can still change. From €15,000, fixed before we start.
If you want the full answer
This runs on assumptions you can see. A full answer runs on your history, takes a fixed fee agreed before it starts, and is presented by the partner who did the work. Whatever you send us stays confidential and unattributed.