Tools · illustrative
Margin at risk on one project
A point estimate hides the tail. Enter a project's shape and watch the distribution — the expected margin, the p90 (bad-but-plausible) outcome, and a rough probability the project finishes underwater. This is a teaching model on transparent assumptions, and no forecast of your project. The audit starts with your baseline.
The distribution
Expected margin
€40,000
16% of value
Probability of loss
12%
finishes below zero margin
p90 cost at completion
€268,000
Margin at p90
−€18,000
Model: cost-to-complete treated as lognormal around your estimate with the uncertainty you set. Margin = value − (spent + completion). Illustrative only — no project data leaves your browser.
If one of your projects is in that tail
The forecaster we build runs on your delivery data, with a baseline and calibration you can check, and it does this for every project at once. That is a Project margin engagement, and it starts with a Decision Opportunity Audit.
Start with the decision
What the full version does
This model runs on four sliders. The one we build runs on your projects, your costs and your constraints, for every project at once, and tells you which one to look at first. The audit that scopes it is a fixed fee.