Tools
Four calculators for your own numbers
Four of the decisions we build systems around, each as a small tool that solves the problem on your own inputs, in your browser, with nothing sent anywhere. They are simplified. The engagement itself adds uncertainty, constraints and calibration on your history. But the arithmetic is the same arithmetic, and it is checked on every release.
Margin-at-risk calculator
For one project: forecast its cost-to-complete as a distribution and see the probability it finishes below zero margin. Lognormal cost-to-complete around your estimate; loss probability from the normal CDF. Open the tool Predict 02Portfolio margin check
For your whole portfolio: enter your live projects and see which are heading underwater, and the total margin at risk. The same forecast per project, aggregated to a portfolio p90 exposure. Open the tool Select 03Order-acceptance check
More work than capacity? See which orders to accept to maximise margin under your constraint, and what first-come costs. Exact 0/1 knapsack by subset enumeration, so the answer is the optimum. Open the tool Allocate 04Remediation priority check
Limited fix capacity across many cases? See which to handle first to avoid the most loss, versus worst-first. Exact 0/1 knapsack maximising avoided loss under your capacity. Open the toolWhy these solve exactly
Two of these run an exact 0/1 knapsack and never a ranking heuristic, because the whole point is the gap between the two: sorting by size, or by severity, or by whoever shouted loudest, leaves money on the table in a way you can measure. The same family of solvers is in orhof, our open-source operations-research library, 251 functions, zero dependencies, so you can read the grown-up versions of this arithmetic before you trust any of it.
Where the method is written up
- Forecasting cost-to-complete backtested
- Allocating limited remediation effort
- Scheduling under uncertainty
- A worked sample audit synthetic company
Start with the decision
If one of these produced an uncomfortable number
A tool runs on a few fields. The audit runs on your data, calibrates on your history, and says why the number is what it is and what you can still change. Fixed fee, two to three weeks, run by a partner.